據(jù)今日海上能源網(wǎng)站3月31日消息 東南亞鉆機(jī)市場(chǎng)原本預(yù)計(jì)在2020年增長(zhǎng)，但現(xiàn)在卻將出現(xiàn)下滑。一份雷斯塔能源的分析顯示，由于Covid-19大流行和持續(xù)的油價(jià)戰(zhàn)的影響，一些石油公司已經(jīng)大幅削減了2020年的資本支出預(yù)算。

據(jù)雷斯塔能源稱，東南亞的勘探與生產(chǎn)公司一直非常謹(jǐn)慎，將鉆井平臺(tái)鎖定在長(zhǎng)期合同，因此不太可能行使期權(quán)。

雷斯塔預(yù)計(jì)，如果在2020年剩余時(shí)間內(nèi)沒有簽訂新合同，也沒有行使任何期權(quán)，該地區(qū)的利用率將在3月至12月下降54%，這意味著較2019年水平同比下降18%。

在2020年地區(qū)市場(chǎng)的選擇中，40%是與馬國(guó)油合作。因此，今年的市場(chǎng)發(fā)展將相當(dāng)依賴于馬國(guó)油決定行使的期權(quán)數(shù)量。

馬來西亞國(guó)家石油公司正積極努力，盡可能保持運(yùn)營(yíng)的平穩(wěn)，與當(dāng)?shù)厝藛T合作的鉆井平臺(tái)可能不會(huì)受到很大的限制。然而，在馬來西亞最近宣布將封鎖期延長(zhǎng)兩周后，由于船員受限，在該國(guó)運(yùn)營(yíng)的幾座鉆井平臺(tái)預(yù)計(jì)將在未來幾周內(nèi)停止作業(yè)。

今年在東南亞計(jì)劃的大部分鉆井項(xiàng)目都由棕地工程組成，雷斯塔預(yù)計(jì)，運(yùn)營(yíng)商將在填充鉆井部分減少大部分鉆井預(yù)算。

雷斯塔能源資深油田服務(wù)分析師Jo Friedmann說：“稍微樂觀一點(diǎn)的是，與其他地區(qū)市場(chǎng)相比，在東南亞（國(guó)家石油公司傾向于支持國(guó)家鉆井承包商），現(xiàn)有鉆井平臺(tái)合同可能面臨的終止風(fēng)險(xiǎn)較小。這并不是說不會(huì)有任何合同終止，但我們預(yù)計(jì)其強(qiáng)度將低于全球。”

吳恒磊 編譯自 今日海上能源

原文如下：

Rig utilization in Southeast Asia set for decline, Rystad’s analysis shows

Southeast Asia’s rig market, which was poised for growth in 2020, is now set for a decline. Several oil companies have already made significant cuts to their 2020 capex budgets due to the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the ongoing oil price war, a Rystad Energy’s analysis shows.

According to Rystad Energy, E&Ps in Southeast Asia have been very cautious by locking in rigs on long-term contacts, making it unlikely that options will be exercised.

Rystad sees that if no new contracts are signed and no options are exercised for the remainder of 2020, utilization will drop by 54% in the region from March to December. This translates to an 18% year-on-year drop from 2019 levels.

Of the options in the regional market for 2020, 40% are for work with Petronas. Therefore, market development this year will be quite dependent on the volume of options that Petronas decides to exercise.

Petronas is proactively striving to keep operations running as smoothly as possible, and rigs with local crews might not be greatly inhibited. However, after the recently announced two-week extension of the lockdown in Malaysia, several rigs operating in the country are expected to gear down activity in the next few weeks due to crew timeout.

Most of the planned drilling programs in Southeast Asia this year are comprised of brownfield work, and Rystad expects operators to reduce their drilling budgets most within the infill drilling segment.

“On a slightly more positive note, existing rig contracts probably face less danger of being terminated in Southeast Asia – where national oil companies tend to support the national drilling contractor – than in other regional markets. That is not to say there won’t be any contract terminations, but we expect the intensity to be lower than it is globally,“ said Rystad Energy’s senior oilfield service analyst, Jo Friedmann.