據(jù)4月7日OGJ報(bào)道，美國(guó)能源信息署(EIA)在其最新一期《短期能源展望》中表示，美國(guó)將在2020年第三季度恢復(fù)其原油和石油產(chǎn)品凈進(jìn)口國(guó)的地位，并在預(yù)測(cè)期結(jié)束前的大多數(shù)時(shí)間里繼續(xù)保持凈進(jìn)口國(guó)的地位。

這一預(yù)測(cè)依據(jù)的是原油凈進(jìn)口的增加和石油產(chǎn)品凈出口的減少。隨著美國(guó)原油產(chǎn)量下滑，可供出口的桶數(shù)將減少，預(yù)計(jì)原油凈進(jìn)口將增加。在石油產(chǎn)品方面，凈出口將在2020年第三季度降至最低水平，屆時(shí)美國(guó)煉油廠的開工量預(yù)計(jì)將大幅下降。

值得注意的是，EIA在展望中所預(yù)測(cè)的結(jié)果是在預(yù)測(cè)期間歐佩克+不重新執(zhí)行減產(chǎn)協(xié)議的情況下做出的。由于全球需求在不斷變化中，因此4月的《展望》將面臨更大的不確定性。

3月份，布倫特原油均價(jià)為32美元/桶，較2月份的均價(jià)下跌24美元/桶，為2016年1月以來(lái)的最低月度均價(jià)。EIA預(yù)測(cè)，2020年布倫特原油均價(jià)將為33美元/桶，比上月的水平低10美元/桶，低于2019年的64美元/桶。由于全球石油庫(kù)存再度下降，給油價(jià)帶來(lái)上行壓力，布倫特原油均價(jià)將在2021年升至46美元/桶，比上月的預(yù)測(cè)低10美元/桶。

王佳晶 摘譯自 OGJ

原文如下：

EIA: US to regain status as net oil importer in third quarter

The US will regain its status as a net importer of crude oil and petroleum products in the third quarter of 2020 and remain a net importer in most months through the end of the forecast period, the US Energy Information Administration said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook.

The forecast is a result of higher net imports of crude oil and lower net exports of petroleum products. Net crude oil imports are expected to increase because as US crude oil production declines, there will be fewer bbl available for export. On the petroleum product side, net exports will be lowest in the third quarter of 2020, when US refinery runs are expected to decline significantly.

It is noteworthy that EIA’s forecasts in the outlook were made assuming no re-implementation of an OPEC+ agreement during the forecast period.

EIA said the April edition of the outlook is subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because the impacts of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on energy markets are still evolving.

Brent crude oil prices averaged $32/bbl in March, a decrease of $24/bbl from the average in February and the lowest monthly average since January 2016. EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices will average $33/bbl in 2020, $10/bbl lower than in last month’s STEO and down from an average of $64/bbl in 2019. Average Brent prices will rise to an average of $46/bbl in 2021, $10/bbl lower than forecast last month, as a return to declining global oil inventories puts upward pressure on prices.