據(jù)油田技術(shù)4月13日報道，Rystad能源公司的一份分析報告顯示，加拿大是迄今為止受影響最大的產(chǎn)油國，據(jù)估計，2020年第二季度停產(chǎn)損失將超過110萬桶/天。

迄今為止，加拿大石油產(chǎn)量已經(jīng)減少了32.5萬桶/天，其次是伊拉克(30萬桶/天)、和巴西(20萬桶/天)。盡管美國也有可能關(guān)閉數(shù)十萬桶的石油生產(chǎn)，但具體數(shù)字尚未正式公布，也未納入統(tǒng)計中。

Rystad Energy資深分析師Thomas Liles表示："由于4月和5月北美需求嚴重受損，預(yù)計第二季加拿大西部油砂和重油產(chǎn)能可能削減超過110萬桶/天，短期內(nèi)還有進一步下滑的風(fēng)險。"

Rystad對今年剩余時間的減產(chǎn)預(yù)估增至每日51.3萬桶，第四季為每日29.3萬桶。

今年3月，Rystad預(yù)測，按照當(dāng)時的生產(chǎn)速度，加拿大西部的原油儲備可能在本月底接近最大儲能。自4月1日以來，加拿大基準(zhǔn)油價的變動似乎證實了儲存壓力的日趨增大。過去一周，加拿大基準(zhǔn)原油價格與西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油(WTI)的脫鉤程度有所減輕。

中游企業(yè)的矛盾突顯了存儲容量的緊張以及由此帶來的減產(chǎn)。最近上游企業(yè)也凸顯了存儲難題，幾乎可以石油生產(chǎn)近期肯定會有更大幅度的削減。

鄒勤 摘譯自 油田技術(shù)

原文如下：

Canada most affected by shut-ins so far, according to Rystad Energy

A Rystad Energy analysis shows that Canada is the oil producer most affected so far, with the damage estimated to reach above 1.1 million bpd in shut-in production in 2Q20.

Thus far, Canada is estimated to have shut-in oil production of at least 325 000 bpd, followed by Iraq (300 000 bpd) and Brazil (200 000 bpd). Although the US is also likely to be shutting-in hundreds of thousands of barrels of production as well, numbers are not yet official and are not included in our estimates.

“Due to the severity of demand destruction in North America in April and May, we estimate that shuttered oil sands and heavy oil curtailments in Western Canada could exceed 1.1 million bpd in 2Q020, with additional near-term downside risk,“ said Rystad Energy’s senior analyst Thomas Liles.

Rystad's curtailment forecasts for the rest of the year have increased to 513 000 bpd for 3Q20 and 293 000 bpd for 4Q20.

In March Rystad predicted that Western Canadian crude storage was likely to approach maximum capacity by the end of the month at then-current production rates. Movements in benchmark Canadian oil prices since 1 April appear to corroborate mounting pressure on in-basin storage capacity, with lighter Canadian benchmark prices decoupling from WTI over the past week.

Murmurings from midstream players have underscored the strain on storage capacity and the production cuts this has already brought. Recent communication from upstream players has also highlighted the storage conundrum and all but assured deeper near-term cuts.