據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)巴黎報(bào)道，國(guó)際能源署(IEA)署長(zhǎng)法提赫·比羅爾日前在接受《海灣情報(bào)》記者采訪時(shí)表示，全球石油需求將至少需要一年，甚至更長(zhǎng)時(shí)間才能恢復(fù)到COVID-19危機(jī)前每天1億桶的水平。

比羅爾說(shuō)，全球石油需求恢復(fù)的速度將主要取決于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和第二波COVID-19新冠肺炎感染的可能性，后者可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致更嚴(yán)格的封鎖。

IEA在其4月份發(fā)布的石油市場(chǎng)報(bào)告中說(shuō)，由于許多國(guó)家采取了前所未有的封鎖措施來(lái)遏制新冠病毒的傳播，冠狀病毒疫情大流行已經(jīng)抹去了過(guò)去10年的全球石油需求增長(zhǎng)。IEA在4月中旬曾預(yù)計(jì)，全球4月石油日需求量將減少2900萬(wàn)桶，同比將減少創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的930萬(wàn)桶。

比羅爾對(duì)《海灣情報(bào)》記者表示，今年4月份確實(shí)是石油市場(chǎng)和石油行業(yè)的“黑色4月”，WTI原油期貨價(jià)格在4月份有史以來(lái)首次跌至負(fù)值。

比羅爾稱(chēng)，盡管許多國(guó)家先后解除了封鎖，但I(xiàn)EA仍預(yù)計(jì)今年全球石油需求將下降。

當(dāng)被問(wèn)及美國(guó)頁(yè)巖行業(yè)的命運(yùn)時(shí)，比羅爾樂(lè)觀地表示，危機(jī)過(guò)后，當(dāng)需求恢復(fù)正常時(shí)，美國(guó)頁(yè)巖油產(chǎn)量將再次上升。

“頁(yè)巖油將會(huì)卷土重來(lái)，或許會(huì)比較緩慢，但我認(rèn)為，從這段時(shí)期汲取的教訓(xùn)之一是，現(xiàn)在就給頁(yè)巖油寫(xiě)訃告未免為時(shí)過(guò)早，”比羅爾對(duì)《海灣情報(bào)》記者如是說(shuō)。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Global Oil Demand Could Take Years To Recover

Global oil demand will take at least a year--and probably much longer--to return to the pre-crisis levels of 100 million barrels per day (bpd), Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), told Gulf Intelligence in an interview on Wednesday.

The pace at which demand will come back will mostly depend on global economic growth and the possibility of a second wave of COVID-19 infections, which could warrant a return to stricter lockdowns, Birol said.

The IEA said in its April Oil Market Report that the coronavirus pandemic had wiped out a decade of oil demand growth amid the unprecedented lockdown measures in many countries to curb the spreading of the virus. In mid-April, the IEA expected global oil demand to drop by 29 million bpd in April, and by a record 9.3 million bpd year on year in 2020.

April was indeed a ‘black April’ for the oil markets and the industry, Birol told Gulf Intelligence, recalling the first-ever drop of WTI Crude futures into negative territory.

According to Birol, the agency still expects global oil demand to fall this year, despite the lifting of blockades in many countries.

Asked about the fate of the U.S. shale patch, which is reducing oil production for economic reasons due to unsustainably low oil prices, Birol expressed optimism that after the crisis, when demand returns to some form of normality, U.S. shale will rise again.

“Shale will come back, maybe slowly but I think one of the lessons to learn from this period is that it will be too quick to write the obituary of shale oil,” the head of the IEA told Gulf Intelligence.