據7月10日Rigzone報道，國際能源署(International Energy Agency)對全球石油需求前景表示樂觀，但警告稱，疫情的再次爆發可能會阻礙全球石油需求的復蘇。

該機構稱，二季度燃料消耗量的下降幅度略低于此前的預估，隨著經濟活動恢復，未來三個月需求將大幅反彈。IEA預計，隨著歐佩克及其盟友堅持大幅減產，巨大的庫存將會減少。

國際能源署表示:“病例數量不斷增加，一些國家還在不斷增長，這提醒我們，疫情尚未得到控制，對我們市場前景帶來了幾乎可以肯定的下行風險。”

不過，值得注意的是，國際油價較4月底觸及的低點上漲了一倍多，上周五在倫敦市場交易價格接近每桶42美元，原因是燃料消費量增加，原油供應受到控制。

然而，人們仍能感受到危機的沖擊仍在持續。全球石油需求今年將減少790萬桶/天，降幅約為8%。盡管這仍是創紀錄的需求削減，但并不像上個月預期的那樣糟糕，當時該機構預計日消耗量將下降830萬桶。

IEA將其對危機最嚴重的第二季度的需求評估上調了150萬桶/天，不過這仍較2019年同期下降了17%。

據該機構指出，進入第三季度，隨著經濟活動的復蘇，全球石油消費量將較前三個季度增加約14%，達到日均9430萬桶。

需求反彈，再加上歐佩克及其盟友的嚴格減產，加上其他國家的減產，應會在一定程度上緩解今年上半年積壓的大量庫存。

6月份，全球石油供應跌至8690萬桶的九年來最低水平，因歐佩克兌現了所有承諾，同時投資削減和鉆井減少打擊了美國和加拿大的產量。

以沙特阿拉伯和俄羅斯為首的23個國家組成的歐佩克+聯盟已經做出了史無前例的減產承諾，減產量幾乎占全球供應量的10%，以重新平衡市場和支撐油價。國際能源署表示，由于沙特為加快復蘇進程而進一步減產，減產幅度甚至超過了6月份承諾的規模。

洪偉立 摘譯自 Rigzone

原文如下：

IEA Warns Oil Demand Recovery at Risk

The International Energy Agency bolstered its outlook for global oil demand, but warned that the recovery could be derailed by the resurgence of coronavirus.

A collapse in fuel consumption during the second quarter was slightly less severe than previously estimated, and demand should rebound sharply over the next three months as economic activity resumes, the agency said in a monthly report. Bloated inventories will diminish as OPEC and its allies persevere with vast production cuts, it predicted.

Yet a flare-up of the virus, which is raging across several U.S. states and re-emerging in Asia, is “casting a shadow over the outlook,” the IEA cautioned.

“The large, and in some countries, accelerating number of Covid-19 cases is a disturbing reminder that the pandemic is not under control and the risk to our market outlook is almost certainly to the downside,” the IEA said. The Paris-based agency advises major economies on energy policy.

International oil prices have more than doubled from the lows reached in late April, trading just under $42 a barrel in London on Friday, as fuel use picks up and crude supplies are reined in.

The shockwaves of the coronavirus crisis are, however, still being felt.

Global oil demand is on track to slump by 7.9 million barrels a day, or about 8%, this year as lockdowns and the economic contraction reduce the need for products like jet fuel and gasoline. While still a record loss, it’s not as bad as anticipated last month, when the agency projected a drop of 8.3 million barrels a day.

The IEA boosted its demand assessment for the second quarter, the height of the crisis, by 1.5 million barrels a day –- though that still equates to a 17% drop in the period from the same point in 2019.

Going into the third quarter, worldwide consumption should now pick up by about 14% from the previous three-month period, with the revival in economic activity, to average 94.3 million barrels a day, according to the agency.

The demand rebound, coupled with strict output cutbacks by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies alongside losses elsewhere, should temper some of the enormous inventory glut that piled up during the first half of the year.

Global oil supply dropped to a nine-year low of 86.9 million barrels a day last month as OPEC+ delivered all the curbs it promised, while investment cuts and reduced drilling hit output from the U.S. and Canada.

The 23-nation OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, has pledged unprecedented output reductions amounting to almost 10% of world supplies in a bid to rebalance markets and shore up prices. The coalition cut even more than promised in June as the Saudis made additional reductions to speed up the recovery process, the IEA said.