據(jù)世界石油巴黎報(bào)道，國(guó)際能源署(IEA)日前上調(diào)了其對(duì)今年全球石油需求的預(yù)測(cè)，但同時(shí)警告稱，疫情的蔓延對(duì)未來全球石油需求前景構(gòu)成了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。但I(xiàn)EA表示，今年全球煉油活動(dòng)的降幅將超過其6月份的預(yù)期，而明年的增幅將低于預(yù)期。

總部位于巴黎的IEA把今年全球原油日需求預(yù)估上調(diào)到了9210萬(wàn)桶，比其6月預(yù)估增加了40萬(wàn)桶，IEA稱第二季度全球石油需求的降幅小于預(yù)期。

IEA在其月度報(bào)告中表示：“盡管石油市場(chǎng)在需求方面毫無疑問取得了進(jìn)展，但全球新冠肺炎確證病例數(shù)量龐大，在一些國(guó)家還在不斷增加，這令人不安的前景在提醒我們，疫情尚未得到控制，它對(duì)我們市場(chǎng)前景的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)幾乎肯定是下行的。”

IEA表示，許多國(guó)家放松封鎖措施，已導(dǎo)致全球5月和6月燃料供應(yīng)強(qiáng)勁反彈，7月可能也會(huì)出現(xiàn)反彈。

但I(xiàn)EA表示，今年全球的煉油活動(dòng)降幅將超過其在6月份的預(yù)期，而明年的增幅將低于預(yù)期。

由于航空旅行的減少，明年全球石油需求可能會(huì)比去年低260萬(wàn)桶/天，其中煤油和航空燃油需求減少占到這個(gè)數(shù)字的四分之三。

對(duì)煉油商而言，需求改善帶來的任何好處，都很可能被未來原料市場(chǎng)將嚴(yán)重吃緊的預(yù)期所抵消。今年第二季度需求非常疲弱，導(dǎo)致大量成品油庫(kù)存過剩，煉油利潤(rùn)率也將受到挑戰(zhàn)。

在供應(yīng)方面，IEA說，歐佩克和包括俄羅斯在內(nèi)的其他產(chǎn)油國(guó)減產(chǎn)協(xié)議的履行率已達(dá)到108%。

盡管美國(guó)原油供應(yīng)預(yù)計(jì)將在今年下半年緩慢恢復(fù)以及解除利比亞原油出口不可抗力在今年年底前將給全球市場(chǎng)另外日增90萬(wàn)桶原油，然而，市場(chǎng)驅(qū)動(dòng)的削減產(chǎn)量也影響到了其他石油生產(chǎn)國(guó)，特別是美國(guó)。

李峻 編譯自 世界石油

原文如下：

IEA raises 2020 oil demand forecast but oil refining may fall more than IEA anticipates

The International Energy Agency (IEA) bumped up its 2020 oil demand forecast on Friday but warned that the spread of COVID-19 posed a risk to the outlook. But oil refining activity in 2020 is set to fall by more than the IEA anticipated last month and to grow less in 2021, it said.

The Paris-based IEA raised its forecast to 92.1 million barrels per day (bpd), up 400,000 bpd from its outlook last month, citing a smaller-than-expected second-quarter decline.

"While the oil market has undoubtedly made progress ... the large, and in some countries, accelerating number of COVID-19 cases is a disturbing reminder that the pandemic is not under control and the risk to our market outlook is almost certainly to the downside," the IEA said in its monthly report.

The easing of lockdown measures in many countries caused a strong rebound to fuel deliveries in May, June and likely also July, the IEA said.

But oil refining activity in 2020 is set to fall by more than the IEA anticipated last month and to grow less in 2021, it said.

Demand in 2021 will likely be 2.6 million bpd below 2019 levels, with kerosene and jet fuel due to a drop in air travel accounting for three-quarters of the shortfall.

"For refiners, any benefit from improving demand is likely to be offset by expectations of much tighter feedstock markets ahead. Refining margins will also be challenged by a major product stocks overhang from the very weak second quarter of 2020," the IEA said.

On the supply front, the IEA said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and other producers including Russia, a grouping known as OPEC+, had shown 108% compliance with their pact to rein in output.

Market driven cuts had also affected other producers, especially the United States, though U.S. supply was expected to slowly recover in the second half of 2020 while the lifting of force majeure on exports of Libyan crude could add another 900,000 bpd to global markets by the end of the year.