據(jù)油價(jià)網(wǎng)2020年8月7日倫敦報(bào)道，根據(jù)知名商業(yè)咨詢服務(wù)商IHS Markit的最新價(jià)格預(yù)測(cè)，今年布倫特原油價(jià)格將平均為每桶42.35美元，2021年為每桶49.25美元。與今年5月的預(yù)測(cè)相比，布倫特原油明年的價(jià)格將上調(diào)7美元。

在經(jīng)歷了4月份最嚴(yán)重的需求崩盤之后，石油市場(chǎng)目前正“處于一個(gè)微妙的轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)，正過(guò)渡到IHS Markit預(yù)期的復(fù)蘇第二階段。”

最近幾周，原油價(jià)格相對(duì)穩(wěn)定，布倫特原油交易價(jià)格處在每桶40- 45美元的窄幅區(qū)間。IHS Markit金融服務(wù)副總裁羅杰·迪萬(wàn)近日在一份報(bào)告中表示，布倫特原油價(jià)格“可能在2021年下半年最終突破每桶50美元大關(guān)”。

根據(jù)IHS Markit的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，如果COVID-19疫情沒有出現(xiàn)第二波可能導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)大范圍關(guān)閉的大范圍爆發(fā)，那么布倫特原油價(jià)格在未來(lái)4個(gè)季度平均將維持在每桶40- 47美元的區(qū)間。

這家咨詢公司表示，目前的市場(chǎng)基本面不利于油價(jià)跳升，因?yàn)闅W佩克+和北美產(chǎn)油國(guó)在7月和8月將給市場(chǎng)每天帶來(lái)400萬(wàn)桶左右的原油產(chǎn)量。與此同時(shí)，有跡象顯示，石油需求復(fù)蘇正陷入停滯，而中國(guó)創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的原油購(gòu)買狂潮可能即將結(jié)束。

IHS Markit 說(shuō)：“只要油價(jià)維持在目前的區(qū)間，對(duì)需求的擔(dān)憂就可能有助于維持(歐佩克+協(xié)議的進(jìn)程。當(dāng)油價(jià)超過(guò)50美元/桶時(shí)，有可能推高美國(guó)的資本支出，那就是討論的基調(diào)發(fā)生變化的時(shí)候，興趣的分歧可能開始顯現(xiàn)。”

路透社日前對(duì)分析師和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家進(jìn)行的月度調(diào)查顯示，如果今年下半年全球石油需求復(fù)蘇沒有出現(xiàn)實(shí)質(zhì)性的回升，油價(jià)不太可能比目前的水平高很多。

李峻 編譯自 油價(jià)網(wǎng)

原文如下：

Oil Prices Could Break $50 In 2021

Brent Crude prices are set to average $42.35 a barrel this year and $49.25 per barrel in 2021, according to IHS Markit’s latest price forecast, which was raised by $7 a barrel for next year compared to the previous projection in May.

After the worst of the demand crash in April, oil markets are now “at a delicate pivot point as they transition to phase II” of the recovery expected by IHS Markit.

In recent weeks, oil prices have been relatively stable, with Brent Crude trading in the narrow $40-$45 per barrel range. The price of Brent “could conclusively pass the $50 per barrel mark in the second half of 2021,” Roger Diwan, vice president financial services at IHS Markit, said in a note on Thursday.

Brent Crude prices are expected to remain in the $40-$47 per barrel price range on average over the next four quarters, if there isn’t a major second wave of COVID-19 that could prompt widespread economic shutdowns, according to IHS Markit.

The current market fundamentals are not conducive to a jump in oil prices as OPEC+ and North American producers are bringing back a total of around 4 million bpd on the market in July and August, the consultancy says. At the same time, there are signs of stalling oil demand recovery, while China’s record crude buying spree may be coming to an end.

“As long as prices hold in the current range, demand concerns will likely help keep the [OPEC+] agreement on course. When prices surpass $50/bbl, potentially lifting capital spending in the United States higher, that is when changes to the tenor of the discussion, and the divergence of interest could start to play out,” Diwan said.

Oil prices are unlikely to go much higher than current levels if global oil demand recovery doesn’t pick up in a meaningful way in the second half of the year, the monthly Reuters poll of analysts and economists showed last week.