據(jù)全球能源新聞網(wǎng)4月10日報(bào)道，美國能源信息署（EIA）公布的《4月短期能源展望（STEO）》仍面臨更大程度的不確定性，因?yàn)閷π鹿谝咔榈姆磻?yīng)仍在不斷變化。與新冠疫情相關(guān)的經(jīng)濟(jì)活動減少，在過去一年造成了能源需求和供應(yīng)的變化，并將在未來繼續(xù)影響這些模式。與2019年相比，美國2020年的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值(GDP)下降了3.5%。

EIA預(yù)計(jì)，2021年上半年全球石油庫存將減少180萬桶/日。預(yù)計(jì)2021年下半年，全球石油供應(yīng)的增長將有助于實(shí)現(xiàn)市場的基本平衡。然而，這一預(yù)測在很大程度上取決于歐佩克+未來的產(chǎn)量決定、美國致密油產(chǎn)量對油價的反應(yīng)能力、石油需求增長速度等因素。

據(jù)EIA估計(jì)，今年3月，全球石油和液體燃料日消耗量為9600萬桶，較2020年3月增加470萬桶。EIA表示，我們預(yù)測，2021年全年全球石油和液體燃料的日均消費(fèi)量將達(dá)到9770萬桶，較2020年增加550萬桶。我們預(yù)測，2022年日消費(fèi)量將增加370萬桶，達(dá)到日均1.013億桶。

EIA預(yù)計(jì)，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量將從2021年第一季度的日均2510萬桶上升至第二季度的2580萬桶。此次增產(chǎn)是由于4月1日歐佩克+宣布將在5月份開始提高產(chǎn)量目標(biāo)。這也反映出沙特阿拉伯將取消5-7月期間100萬桶/日的自愿減產(chǎn)。我們預(yù)計(jì)，2021年下半年，歐佩克原油產(chǎn)量將增至2790萬桶/日。

根據(jù)EIA的最新數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2021年1月美國國內(nèi)原油日均產(chǎn)量為1110萬桶。據(jù)EIA的分析師估計(jì)，2月份美國國內(nèi)原油日產(chǎn)量下降80萬桶，主要原因是低溫影響了美國大部分地區(qū)，特別是德克薩斯州。我們預(yù)測，2021年第二季度的原油日均產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到1090萬桶，到2021年第四季度將增至1140萬桶。預(yù)計(jì)到2022年，美國原油日均產(chǎn)量將達(dá)到1190萬桶。美國原油產(chǎn)量上升的預(yù)測是由于我們預(yù)計(jì)在預(yù)測期內(nèi)西德克薩斯中質(zhì)原油價格將保持在55美元/桶以上。

據(jù)研究顯示，2021年美國天然氣日均消費(fèi)量將達(dá)到829億立方英尺，比2020年下降0.4%。美國天然氣消費(fèi)量的下降是由于天然氣價格高于去年，因此用于發(fā)電的天然氣消費(fèi)量減少。

郝芬 譯自 全球能源新聞網(wǎng)

原文如下：

GLOBAL OIL CONSUMPTION WILL AVERAGE 97.7 MILLION BARRELS PER DAY IN 2021

The April Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released by the EIA (US Energy Information Administration) remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty because responses to COVID-19 continue to evolve. Reduced economic activity related to the COVID-19 pandemic has caused changes in energy demand and supply during the past year and will continue to affect these patterns in the future. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) declined by 3.5% in 2020 from 2019 levels.

EIA expects global oil inventories to fall by 1.8 million b/d in the first half of 2021. Forecast increases in global oil supply will contribute to a mostly balanced market during the second half of 2021. However, the forecast depends heavily on future production decisions by OPEC+, the responsiveness of U.S. tight oil production to oil prices, and the pace of oil demand growth, among other factors.

EIA estimates that the world consumed 96.0 million b/d of petroleum and liquid fuels in March, an increase of 4.7 million b/d from March 2020. “We forecast that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 97.7 million b/d for all of 2021, which is up by 5.5 million b/d from 2020. We forecast that consumption will increase by 3.7 million b/d in 2022 to average 101.3 million b/d” the EIA said

EIA expects OPEC crude oil production will rise from an average of 25.1 million b/d in the first quarter of 2021 to 25.8 million b/d in the second quarter. The increase is the result of the April 1 OPEC+ announcement to begin raising production targets in May. It also reflects Saudi Arabia unwinding voluntary cuts of 1.0 million b/d between May and July. We expect OPEC crude oil production will rise to almost 27.9 million b/d in the second half of 2021.

According to EIA’s most recent data, U.S. domestic crude oil production averaged 11.1 million b/d in January 2021. The EIA’s analysts estimate that U.S. domestic crude oil production declined by 0.8 million b/d in February, mostly because of cold temperatures that affected much of the country, particularly Texas. We forecast crude oil production will average 10.9 million b/d in the second quarter of 2021 and increase to almost 11.4 million b/d by the fourth quarter of 2021. It is expected that U.S. crude oil production will average 11.9 million b/d in 2022. The forecast of rising U.S. crude oil production is the result of our expectation that West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices will remain above $55/b through the forecast period.

According to the study, U.S. consumption of natural gas will average 82.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2021, down 0.4% from 2020. The decline in U.S. natural gas consumption is a result of less natural gas consumed for electric power generation because of higher natural gas prices compared with last year.